Appearance on ESPN970 -- July 8
For whatever reason, this audio wasn't uploading right to Bless You Boys.
This was my appearance last week on ESPN70 in Marquette. I discussed the home run derby, the Galarraga demotion and more.
(download)
For whatever reason, this audio wasn't uploading right to Bless You Boys.
This was my appearance last week on ESPN70 in Marquette. I discussed the home run derby, the Galarraga demotion and more.
(download)
How do you say goodbye to Ernie Harwell? Jose Feliciano sent a massive bouquet and a note signed with love, then sent another bunch of flowers four days later. The devout women of the Ames United Methodist Church in Saginaw, Mich., knitted a shawl and prayed over it. Harwell is dying, which means the childhoods of roughly four generations are dying. And all of them seem a lot more troubled by it than Harwell is.
Curtis Granderson may not be a Tiger, but he is continuing to help students in the state of Michigan through his foundation and celebrity All-Star Game, which Billfer gave two thumbs-up to at the Detroit Tigers Weblog. Maybe Grandy should give Austin Jackson a call and let the fans know he's an OK guy. The kid has really big shoes to fill, he could use any help he could get, I'm sure. Press release from Curtis Granderson's PR director John Fuller: Curtis Granderson and the Grand Kids Foundation will hold the 3rd Annual Celebrity Shoot-Out, presented by Meijer. This all-star event is scheduled for January 24 at Seaholm High School in Birmingham. This event will celebrate the work that the Grand Kids Foundation has done and continues to do for Michigan’s inner city schools and also serve as a way for Granderson’s fans to say goodbye as he moves on to play for the New York Yankees. Granderson, a 2009 All-Star and the Major League Baseball Players Association’s Marvin Miller Man of the Year, will serve as the game’s referee. “This will also be an emotional event on a personal level, as it will be somewhat of a goodbye from me to the fans and the city that have supported me so strongly throughout my career so far,” says Granderson. “I hope that those fans can pack the gym and also raise a lot of money for inner city education in Michigan.” This year’s all-star lineup of coaches and players promises to be the best yet. The coaches for the two teams are former University of Michigan football coach Lloyd Carr and Detroit Piston Ben Gordon. Carr brings a history of winning to the bench with his five Big Ten championships and the 1997 National Championship while coaching for Michigan. Gordon knows what it takes to support a team from the bench too; he was named the NBA Sixth Man of the Year in 2005. Michigan college athletes will also be well represented in this game. Michigan State University will be represented by former football star and NFL player TJ Duckett while the University of Michigan will have 1991 Heisman Trophy winner Desmond Howard and Fab Five members Jalen Rose and Jimmy King playing in the Shoot-Out. Howard was named the Super Bowl XXXI MVP and is currently an ESPN analyst along with Rose. King is also an analyst for college basketball. “We've never had such a strong lineup this early in the year for my Celebrity Shoot-Out,” states Granderson. “This year I wanted to reach across multiple platforms and bring in a real diverse group of individuals all with one goal - raising money for inner city education. I am a fan of every one of the individuals that have committed to this event so far and I am excited to get a chance to have fun with them for a great cause.” Tickets are $30 for adults and $25 for students with a valid student ID. Children 2 years old and younger are admitted for free. Tickets can be purchased at www.curtisgranderson.com and www.grandkidsfoundation.org where fans can also keep updated on the latest confirmed guests. “The Celebrity Shoot-Out has come to be the biggest fundraiser for the Grand Kids Foundation. Any fan that has been there in the past can tell you how interactive the players are with the fans, and vice versa. It truly is great entertainment for your family and friends,” says Granderson about his annual event to raise funds for inner city schools in Michigan. Confirmed Players: Joe Cada - 2009 World Series of Poker Champion/Team PokerStars Pro TJ Duckett – former Michigan State football player and NFL player Chris Hansen - correspondent for Dateline NBC Desmond Howard – former Michigan football player, 1991 Heisman Trophy winner, Super Bowl XXXI MVP and current ESPN analyst Helen Phillips – NBC’s The Biggest Loser Season 7 winner Jeff Grayer – 9 year NBA veteran, 1988 US Olympian Jemele Hill - ESPN personality Dana Jacobson - ESPN's First Take host Jimmy King – former University of Michigan basketball player and Fab Five member, current college basketball analyst Pat McInnis - Fathead.com CEO Mike Morelli – NBC’s The Biggest Loser Season 7 runner-up Erin Nicole - WXYZ Traffic Reporter, Palace Arena Hostess Jalen Rose – former Michigan basketball player and Fab Five member, former NBA player, current ESPN analyst Trevor Thompson - Fox Sports Detroit personality Confirmed Coaches: Lloyd Carr - fMichigan football coach, won five Big Ten titles and the 1997 national championship Ben Gordon - Detroit Pistons star, 2005 NBA Sixth Man of the Year
It would be a serious folly to close the books on a trade within days of it occurring. Moving salary can lead to bringing in new players. Players a team traded for can be traded again. So, I'm not going to declare this the trade of Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson for Max Scherzer, Dan Schlereth, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke as making no sense at all.
However, I am going to question whether or not the trade makes as much sense as people think. There are chief explanations -- not necessarily mutually exclusive -- for why the Tigers had to make the move, and why it makes sense.
One says, the payroll was too high. Detroit couldn't possibly continue it. So they had to move some contracts. Like the $5.5 contract of Curtis Granderson. And the $4 million or so Jackson will likely make next season. I reject this view.
The second view says that the Tigers' had too many holes in the big league club and the farm system, so they had to infuse the organization with some high quality talent. On that, I agree completely. However, given the players received I have to reject this view, as well.
So when I look at what actually happened, I fail to see the vision of the ballclub, both in the past 18 months, and at this very moment.
The Tigers appeared set to have a payroll around $125 million, $130 or so if the Tigers want to play a closer. At the Detroit Tigers Weblog, Billfer projects that payroll at around $115M right now. The savings in 2010 of $9 or $10 million is truly not that significant -- about 8 percent. Now it's true, Granderson will cost $8.25 million in 2011 and $10M in 2012. But given the Tigers' payroll nosedives to $43 million in 2011 obligations, this doesn't appear to be a contract the organization needed to shed to assure its long-term health.
This is a club with a TV contract worth 400 million over 10 years, that receives anywhere from $20 to $35 million in revenue sharing (thank Scott Boras for sharing that), that likely brought in $60-65 million in ticket revenue (based on the average ticket price of $25 per Forbes, and 2.56 million tickets). Assuming the minimums, that's $120 million in those three revenue streams alone in 2009. (Hat tip to Billfer and Phil Wezner of TigsTown for getting the first line of research on the topic).
So, I'm sorry. I just don't buy it being caused by money. In the big picture, the savings weren't that great, and could just as easily have been accumulated by trading Edwin Jackson, moving catcher Gerald Laird and non-tendering lefty specialist Bobby Seay. And if a billionaire baseball fan/owner can't absorb a loss for 2010, then he'd better stop enjoying the nice press given to him.
So it's not about the money.
This makes a lot more sense to me. Detroit has upcoming holes at both corner outfielder spots, shortstop, third base, and starting pitching. The organization has a few five-star prospect starting pitchers in the minor leagues who will step up, maybe as soon as 2011, definitely by 2012. But that still leave a lot of holes in 2011.
So yes, I could very much see moving the Tigers' most-tradable commodities to put the franchise in a better spot moving forward.
So let's see what the Tigers got:
And this is the problem with the trade. The Tigers spent 2008 and 2009 drafting several relief pitchers with low-to-middle major league ceilings who were close to the majors. Perry was a 2008 first-rounder. Cody Satterwhite was the second-round pick. Weinhardt a ninth rounder. Oliver a 2009 second-rounder. (In theory, he is a starting pitcher, but he translates much better as a reliever and will keep the role warm only until 2009 first rounder Jacob Turner matures a season or two later.)
The Tigers' cup overfloweth with relief pitching -- either that or with wasted draft picks, your call. And yet, relief pitching is notoriously fickle. They're failed starters basically. If they weren't failed starters, they have a higher value to the team as, well, actual starters. Sure, there are crazy teams like the Astros out there who overpay for it, but as a rule you can put together an effective bullpen fine without spending like crazy. And, oh yes, I'm not sure this bullpen screams at me "best in the league." Actually, I'm sure it doesn't.
Yet, this was the haul for the trade?
So, remind me again, exactly, how did this trade benefit the organization in the long run?
As I said in the introduction, it's too early to know how it will turn out. Now with pitching overflowing, the Tigers may choose to move some to fill some holes. I hope that is the case.
But if they don't, the crop of upcoming talent (shortstop Cale Iorg or Audy Ciriaco; third baseman fill-in-the-blank; outfielders Brennan Boesch and Ryan Strieby) does not say "division winner" to me. It says, "Low-cost team making a profit for the owner and frustrating fans."
The star of the 2011 free-agent class may be Verlander. The reason I say that is that some superstars are indeed coming up for free agency -- Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes (does he count anymore?) -- but what are the odds their team lets them? I'd say pretty low. Victor Martinez could help (as a DH?), but the Red Sox are currently trying to extend him, as well.
Brandon Webb may hit the market, but then we get back to the initial problem, starting pitching is actually a strength, and pitching is what the Tigers traded for. And if Verlander is not traded for prospects to fill the still-remaining holes, he'll probably be inked to an extension.
The best third baseman available may just be ... Brandon Inge?!
So the Tigers have freed up money. Great.
The only way they'll get a chance to spend it is by finding a club having a fire sale and taking the contract off its hands. Or maybe they could give out bad contracts to mediocre free agents. I hope that isn't the plan!
There was no plan.
Reward manager Jim Leyland with a contract through 2011, then take away the best players on his team. That's something that has never worked well with Leyland in the past.
Use up your early-round draft picks on relief pitchers, then trade your star center fielder for relief pitchers.
Free up extra money for an offseason with a rather bland free-agent class.
Right now, I am failing to see exactly how the Tigers are going to put this puzzle back together and create a contender in 2011 and beyond. The only way I believe they can do it is the kind of trades that brought Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco to the team in the mid-2000s. Can lightning strike twice? Let's hope so.
Because right now, it looks like dark days ahead.
Four seasons ago, I started this blog. It was a hobby, just trying to provide a different look, a different voice, have a little fun. Over the years, I've changed how I write for it, changed how often I write, but I keep coming back. I really do feel a lot of love for the blog.
But now, I'll be moving on from it, taking the reins of Bless You Boys over the next couple of weeks. SB Nation offers terrific blogging tools, as well as promotion opportunities I just could not provide on my own; so I am happy they offered me the opportunity to join their network. It's an chance to manage what is probably the most read Tigers blog on the Internet, and a great community, too. I hope its popularity only continues to grow, and I hope all my readers here will follow me over there.
MAT will be online still, though it might be going through a few changes here and there as the month goes on, as I put it into a winter storage of sorts.
I want to thank everyone who reads the site and who tells their friends about it. Without you, it wouldn't have lasted this long or have been worth writing for so long.
OK. I've given it a few days to think about it. And I've gone through the grieving process in reverse direction.
I was prepared to see Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson traded at the Winter Meetings.
Really, I was.
I was even interested to see what the Tigers could get in return for the two players, because we were assured they were not going to be given away cheap.
Granderson to the Yankees? Maybe for Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson, and hopefully more.
Is that asking price too high or unreasonable? Tough. Granderson was an important, franchise player for the club. He was an extremely important player for the fans. If you can't get back an incredible package for him, you don't move him.
Period.
So if Granderson was traded, I expected to find some excitement in return.
Right name, wrong Phil.
Because I'm sorry, but Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth and Austin Jackson are not an exciting prospect package to receive for the face of your franchise (and one of the best center fielders in the American League, if not baseball.)
Why did I leave out Max Scherzer? Well, it is not a report verified by the Tigers, but the New York Post reported the Diamondbacks offered Scherzer for Edwin Jackson straight up.
That is a deal that you do.
Scherzer was the true star of the young player package the Tigers received, not Austin Jackson. Not Coke. Not Schlereth. Those three are nice and all, but none excite me much.
So to hear the Tigers could have had Scherzer -- a pitcher I expect to be better than Edwin Jackson -- and still kept Granderson or traded him for an exciting prospect package, I go from accepting the trade on baseball terms to rejecting it.
And even if it's not an accurate report, I still don't like the trade. The Tigers did not receive enough in return for Granderson. Like I said, if you think it's unreasonable I ask so much in return, tough. Detroit can keep Granderson.
The fans would certainly be happier than they are right now.
The fact is, while the more attuned baseball fan can look at this trade and see that the values may work out well in the long run, the fan who enjoys baseball enough to align themselves with the players feels betrayed today.
Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski just threw away all the goodwill he and the team earned from 2006 in one fell swoop.
And for what?
Did the Tigers have to make this move from a financial standpoint? I don't see why they did. Granderson's $5.5 million cost in 2010 is manageable. In 2011 and 2012, he costs a bit more, but so many bad contracts come off the Tigers' payroll that $10 million is a reasonable price to pay.
If $5.5 million is so important, let catcher Gerald Laird and relief pitcher Bobby Seay go. Those guys are not as important as a top tier center fielder, easier to replace, and the fans do not ally themselves with them as readily.
And then we have the next problem. The replacement. Austin Jackson was certainly a well-respected prospect in his own right. He was the Yankees' No. 1 prospect heading into 2009, as rated by Baseball America. But you can only hope he has a career that touches Granderson's, and you have to expect he won't. His minor-league stats have several holes in them: batting average on balls in play of .392 and just a .300 average, no power, speed that isn't burning speed.
And he was the prize position player received in return!
He's got very, very big shoes to fill. I do not envy him.
The Tigers had a bit of rebuilding to do. I accept that.
But if the return for one of your most tradable commodities is a center fielder with holes in his game and a couple of relievers, then you didn't do a very good job of rebuilding.
Dombrowski had better hope this works and the team gets back on its feet quick, or he will be chased out of Detroit by fans with pitchforks storming Comerica Park.
Actually, he probably will anyway.
Short of a World Series victory with some memorable moments by the guys traded for, I don't think this is is a trade that will be forgiven.
Certainly not by me.
Last night, former Tigers reliever Brandon Lyon signed with the Houston Astros for a deal reported at three years and $15 million, Fox Sports Ken Rosenthal reported on Twitter. (Via MLB Trade Rumors)
In return, the Tigers will receive a "sandwich" pick between the first and second rounds in the First-Year Player Draft next summer.
I had hoped the Tigers might come to some sort of agreement with Lyon, originally. But that was before trading Curtis Granderson, which will leave a hole in an already thin lineup. At that point, I think the Tigers might as well invest fully in the idea of rebuilding. (And they can spin it however they want, but short term, they are not as good today as they were on Monday.)
So it makes little sense to pay several million dollars a year for a closer when you have so many internal candidates. It's time for them to sink or swim in the MLB so GM Dave Dombrowski can make better-informed decisions next offseason. In other words, I don't want the Tigers to ever do what the Astros just did: pay a premium for anything less than a premier closer. (update: Fangraphs calls it the worst signing of the winter.)
So from a Tigers' standpoint, this was a pretty good deal.
Update: Tigs Town's Mark Anderson reports on Twitter Freddy Dolsi and Dusty Ryan were designated for assignment.
Assuming all the physicals are passed and all the i's dotted and t's crosed, the Tigers are not currently in position to make the three-way trade with Arizona and New York, you might have heard.
They have two too many players on the 40-man roster. Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson will be exiting, but room must be made for Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth.
Of course, the easiest way to do that would be just to remove two players from the 40-man roster and hope to pass them through waivers. But the more productive option would be finding a way to deal them for minor leaguers who do not require addition to the roster.
So, yes. It's possible even more players who were members of the 2009 team will be gone by opening day in 2010. Actually, it's probably. I would expect more than a third, maybe even 40 percent, of the Aug. 31 active (25-man) roster will not be playing in Detroit next season. I guess that's what happens when you fail to make the playoffs at the back end of a contention window.
Now it's time for a new generation of players to take their shots.
Anyway, I am in agreement with some of the other thoughts on this I have seen, from Bill at DTW and Tony Paul at the News. The Tigers will probably bid goodbye to lefty specialist Bobby Seay.
He always showed potential to be more than a specialist, but now that so many southpaws are set to be in the Tigers' bullpen, there is room to move him, and likely interest enough to find a trading partner.
The other possibility, as has been noted in the past, is admitting the Dontrelle Willis situation will not likely turn around in 2010. However, it's possible the Tigers receive some insurance money for Willis. From that aspect, they pay him less to be on the 40-man roster than they pay him not to be, so it would make some sense to keep him until his contract ends.
From a positional player standpoint, the Tigers never really seemed to give catcher Dusty Ryan much of a chance. With the emergence of Alex Avila, and with the signing of Robinson Diaz, it's quite possible they remove Ryan from the roster and see what happens.
Other names to come up are infielder Jeff Larish -- I think this would be an unwise move, though the right trade could change my mind on that -- and complete utilityman Don Kelly. I like Larish too much to see them just give up on him. He really hasn't been given a great shot either, with just 74 games across two seasons. Kelly's best usage is insurance in case third baseman Brandon Inge has any health problems in 2010 following his knee surgeries this offseason. There really isn't anyone left in the organization who you could trust to play third regularly.
In any case, moves will be announced soon, because Detroit cannot complete the trade without them. So keep an eye on that.
A lot of people weighed in about the trade in the comments section here at Mack Avenue Tigers. But what are people saying about it elsewhere?
Before touching on the Granderson aspect of the deal, let's get this out of the way: the clear winners here are the Tigers. While each team got what they wanted in a well-balanced three way trade, this is an absolute mission accomplished for Detroit and general manager Dave Dombrowski, pictured above.
So in exchange for the well-known players the Tigers gave up, there’s significant optimism that the team in reality has improved itself long-term. They’ve likely received their replacement for Jackson in Scherzer, and believe Austin Jackson can be just as good as Granderson, all the while being a better fit for the home park. And to top it all off, they’ve added a pair of young lefties that will likely help bolster a bullpen that could be looking to re-shape itself in 2010.
Great for Yanks, good for Tigers, terrible for Diamondbacks. My friends are usually right. I do wonder if we're not short-changing the Tigers just a little bit. Scherzer seems like the big prize, because he's cheap and might strike out 200 hitters next year (Verlander/Scherzer is downright scary).
(on Scherzer): “I think he’s always worked on a third pitch; he’s always worked on incorporating secondary stuff and being able to utilize that as a full, three-or-four-times-through-the-order starter. ... He’s a hard worker who has some competitiveness to him.”
I don't believe this was a good trade for the Tigers. I also don't believe it was a terrible one. But they shouldn't have needed to make it. When Granderson signed a five-year contract extension two winters ago, no one could have predicted that he would be shipped to the Yankees this soon.
*snip*
Verlander, 26, is only two years away from free agency, where a nine-figure contract may await. He is from Virginia. He has lived in Florida. Do you think Verlander, a competitor on the order of Roy Halladay, will want to stay in Detroit if players of Granderson's caliber are being traded away? The Tigers' performance over the next two seasons will need to convince him.
For those who are upset about the trade, I can’t blame you. There is a baseball reason for what went down. But right now it’s okay to grieve. Granderson was a remarkable player and a source of pride for everyone who flipped on that English D cap in the morning. This is the kind of trade that rips the soul out of a fan. The good news is that for those who have their Granderson jersey and called Granderson THEIR Tiger you don’t need to keep that jersey in the closet. It’s an instant classic.
After some extensive reflection I’ve come to the conclusion that this deal will never really sit well with me. By never I don’t actually mean for eternity, but at least until the fruits of the trade bear some sort of championship or something.
My initial thought is that I wouldn't trade Scherzer, 25, for Jackson, 26, straight up. Jackson is a very good pitcher, but he is not a high-strikeout guy who profiles as an ace. He also wore down at the end of last season, when he threw about 500 more pitches than he did in 2008. Scherzer has big-time stuff. Last year at age 24 he averaged more than a strikeout an inning over 30 starts -- something that's been done by only 20 other pitchers that young in baseball history.
Days ago the Tiger’s had said Granderson could easily be part of a future deal. So then, why the shock? I suppose it is because as humans we always hope that what we fear most will never come to pass. Even when we are given the time to prepare for an eventuality such as this, we procrastinate. We will deal with it later. Right now, we don’t want to hear it.
Totaling it all up, we traded away roughly $79.4 million in total value and $33.4 million in surplus value. In return, Scherzer, Schlereth, Coke and Jackson bring roughly $137 million in total value and $92.5 million in surplus value.
*snip*
To try to take an objective point of view, the return on this deal appears promising -- then again, most trades for teams getting youngsters in return always appears promising.
From a personal standpoint, he was the only player I ever interviewed. The article I wrote about him in Tigers Corner in 2007 was my favorite piece or work as a freelance writer. He's going to appear on the cover of my upcoming sabermetrics book and yes he'll be wearing a Tigers uniform.
Many Tigers internet fans will always remember how he recognized their friend Brian Bluhm when he was killed in the horrific Virginia Tech shootings. Curtis made Brian his number one fan on facebook and wrote about him on his blog.
*snip*
It's a gutsy move trading the popular Granderson for mostly unproven commodities but I think there was pressure to do something. For Dombrowski's sake it better work. I think if they don't make the playoffs by 2011, his job may be in jeopardy.
Losing Curtis to the New York Yankees exacerbates these feelings to the highest degree for me personally. I could even handle him playing for an AL Central team. But pinstripes? No. No. No. Why is it the Yankees have their way with the rest of the league? Truly, I had to console myself with a big dinner from my favorite Thai restaurant.
From the Yankees perspective, this deal is almost too good to be true. Heading into his age 29 season, Granderson is a legitimate +4 win center fielder signed to a bargain contract for the next four years.
*snip*
From the Tigers perspective, this deal makes some sense, even though they’re giving up the premier player in the trade. Scherzer is a terrific arm, ranking 44th on my trade value series. He’s a quality pitcher who has five years left of team control, giving the Tigers a frontline starter on the cheap who will be in Detroit for the foreseeable future. Jackson should be a decent player, though not a star, and could hold down center field for the league minimum. Schlereth and Coke strengthen the bullpen.
